AUD/JPY rates are edging towards bull flag resistance, which has been in place since the middle of June. AUD/USD rates established a morning star candlestick pattern in recent days, but there was no follow through today.
AUD/USD: Retail trader data shows 66.05% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.95 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.23% higher than yesterday and 5.31% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.28% higher than yesterday and 0.91% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias.Not much has changed over the past week. It remains the case that “AUD/JPY rates are in a familiar area, continuing to trade around the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the March 2020 low/May 2021 high/August 2021 range at 92.92 and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 2013 high/2020 low range at 94.68.
What has changed, however, is that momentum is turning more bullish. AUD/JPY rates are trading above their daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, which is in bullish sequential order. Daily MACD is trending higher above its signal line, while daily Slow Stochastics have moved back into overbought territory. A breakout from the bull flag would suggest an initial move higher to the yearly highs at 96.88 in the near-term.
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