Further observations have substantially lowered the risk of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032.
Further observations are being conducted by NASA and the ESA using the James Webb Space Telescope.This is according to both NASA and the European Space Agency.
However, while the asteroid may not hit Earth, it now could hit the Moon on the same date. The probability of that currently sits at 1.7 percent. “The rise and fall of this object’s impact risk has followed a well understood pattern. An asteroid’s impact probability often rises at first before rapidly dropping to zero as the uncertainty region representing all of its possible orbits shrinks and moves away from Earth,”
For example, estimates suggest 2024 YR4 is between 40 and 90m wide which is quite a difference when we’re talking potential damage. Being able to more accurately estimate the size of an object in space is especially important for planetary defence as the size of the object will determine what measures are taken to divert it.
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