Collecting all the Wall Street sentiment readings together leads to a sense that the consensus is experiencing more confusion than conviction.
The market has made a head-spinning round-trip, but in other ways has gone nowhere: The S&P 500 has been sideways in a range for about a month near levels first reached in early 2018.
Anyone buttressing a positive case by claiming "Everyone's bearish" and those calling for deep downside on the notion that "Everyone is too bullish" are equally unreliable at the moment.Johannes Eisele | AFP via Getty ImagesFor investors, trying to gauge sentiment among other investors and traders is a constant undertaking, a way to sort out what bets are popular, which themes are played out and where lies the index direction that would cause the greatest surprise.
The market has made a head-spinning round-trip, but in other ways has gone nowhere: The S&P has been sideways in a range for about a month near levels first reached in early 2018. About half of all large stocks are down more than 30% from their high, and yet in aggregate the S&P carries its highest valuation based on forecast one-year earnings since 2002.
The weekly American Association of Individual Investors poll last week showed bearish respondents numbered more than 50%, twice those saying they were bullish on stocks over the next six months. Bears have exceeded 50% for three of the last four weeks, quite unusual, especially when the S&P is pretty distant from its lows both in price and time.
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