Elections2019: The play of numbers in a poll where voter loyalties are wavering can determine whether president CyrilRamaphosa returns for a second term in 2024.
Cape Town - On May 8, Cyril Ramaphosa will inevitably secure his first mandate from the South African electorate, but the play of numbers in a poll where voter loyalties are wavering can determine whether he emerges with firmer control of his divided party and returns for a second term in 2024.
"If the party has done better than in 2016, then he is going to be in good shape, he will presumably have more authority. The calculation people will make within the ANC, is that it will mean Ramaphosa has added to the ANC vote, with him as president of the ANC, the ANC has improved its position and that should strengthen his position in terms of being re-elected," Friedman said.
This week, the DA leaked data from the party's secret polling system indicating it would get 38 percent to deprive the ANC of an outright majority in the economic centre of the country, with only 45 percent of the vote. The latest IRR survey predicts the ANC could drop as low as 42.8 percent in the province.
But by-elections have shown the DA may have over-estimated its support here for a while, and a DA insider said it seems votes the party lose next week would go to the ANC and the EFF, rather than De Lille's fledgling GOOD Party. "What we do in the next week could be the difference between a DA-run Western Cape, and an ANC/EFF-led Western Cape... A few single votes could mean the difference between the DA winning or losing the Western Cape, so every vote counts! Please encourage all your friends, family and colleagues to get out and vote on 8 May."
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