Neither the police nor John Tory’s office would produce any of the data upon which they based their decision to increase security, though both touted a data-driven approach
What’s less clear is whether there is an actual rise in serious incidents on transit.
“That is of grave concern to me,” said Alok Mukherjee, former chair of the Toronto Police Services Board. “Incidents happening back to back has been turned into a crisis … statistically, it doesn’t prove anything.” The TTC offers some safety information in regular reports from chief executive Rick Leary. These show a rise in offences against passengers, relative to ridership, since the pandemic began. But that captures both more and less serious offences and the reports don’t tend to include month-over-month data. Where they have included the absolute numbers of offences, at times these have gone up relative to ridership changes and at other times declined.
“So therefore the mayor reacted to that reality. But I have not seen any data to demonstrate that the TTC is in fact less safe than it was previously. I also haven’t seen any data to demonstrate that the mayor’s reaction will make it more safe.” Comparing the nearly three years of police alerts from when the pandemic hit Toronto – a period that saw many riders leave transit and a rise in concerns among some of those still on board – through the end of January with the same length of time before, shows the number of warnings about stabbings, other assaults, aggressive behaviour and indecent exposure on the TTC were down sharply. Also way down were police alerts about knife and gun calls on transit agency vehicles and property.
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