When polls close at 8 p.m. for the primary and special U.S. House elections, Alaska starts a wait of more than two weeks for final results. But political consultants say there are some things to watch for when some results get released late Tuesday night.
An early voting site is seen on Monday, Aug. 1, 2022 at the State Office Building in Juneau, Alaska.
Alaska has many more Republican and Republican-leaning voters than Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, but Republican votes will be split between two candidates, likely giving Peltola an early lead, but not one large enough to clinch victory outright by taking more than 50% of the first-choice votes.
The Alaska Republican Party has been running a campaign to prevent that circumstance, telling voters to “rank the red” and to leave Peltola off the ballot entirely. Tom Begich, the Alaska Senate’s Democratic minority leader and an uncle to Republican candidate Nick Begich III, noted that about half of voters in last year’s ranked choice election for New York City mayor didn’t fill out their entire ranked choice ballot.
It’s not known who the fourth candidate will be, and there’s a wide range of possibilities, including a Libertarian and a series of independents. For other legislative seats, the noncompetitive primaries are effectively an August opinion poll. A close margin indicates — but doesn’t guarantee — a close race in November.
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