Argentine traders are keeping a close eye on primary elections on Sunday, which will reveal the likely outcome of the Oct. 22 general ballot, with a major market crash after the same vote in 2019 still seared in their memories.
The primary, which unusually is an obligatory nationwide vote, defines internal leadership battles and acts as a dry run for the general election. It will show how likely the ruling Peronist coalition is to lose power to the main conservative opposition or even a far-right libertarian.
"The election, even though it's a primary, could define the future vision of the market for the years ahead," Mauro Natalucci from local brokerage Rava Bursátil said on Friday. That should temper market reaction to the vote. But with pollsters less than confident about their predictions, outsider libertarian candidate Javier Milei could give markets a shock if he wins much more than the one-fifth of the votes that polls give him now.
SBS Group said there had been "high appetite for currency hedging" in the week leading up to the vote, with many people looking to buy dollars despite the elevated cost.
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