The amount could more than double in 2020.
However, the flip side of AirPods' incredible popularity and blistering growth is that sales could potentially peak soon."Growth tends to slow down a lot once you reach the top of the curve, and AirPods are simply growing so fast today that they risk reaching the top in record time," according to Sacconaghi.
There's also a subset of iPhone owners that bought used handsets and may not be willing to spend $159 on a pair of AirPods, in the analyst's view. Apple said earlier this year that the global iPhone installed base had reached 900 million; Sacconaghi believes around 250 million of those iPhones still in use were bought in the secondary market, which could potentially limit AirPods' upside.
"Given AirPods' extraordinarily steep adoption curve and rapid saturation of the iPhone installed base, we see a dramatic deceleration in AirPods revenue growth by 2021 or 22, to single digit growth rates or possibly lower," the analyst wrote.that AirPods would generate $8.5 billion in revenue in 2019, based on unit volumes of 59.9 million and an average selling price of $142. Munster's model calls for Apple to sell 95.8 million AirPods in 2020 at an ASP of $159, good for $15.
Bernstein reiterated its market perform rating on Apple shares alongside a price target of $250, which is below current levels.
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