OPINION | Angola at a crossroads, or more of the same? - The MPLA managed to retain power in the recent elections but to win the next elections it will have to introduce economic and political reforms
, Good Governance Africa’s Craig Moffat predicted that the MPLA would retain power in Angola’s 24 August elections: “While Unita has made inroads, it may not yet be ready to defeat the long-ruling incumbent MPLA at the polls on 24 August 2022.” , Ross Harvey, the director of research and programmes at the NGO, suggested that the advantages of incumbency would help the MPLA to carry the day despite an unprecedented and strong showing by Unita ahead of the polls.
First, Angola has 14.4 million registered voters. Only 6.5 million of them turned out to vote on the day. Voter turnout is defined differently in different parts of the world, with some countries dividing the voters on the day by the total population eligible to vote . Second, the above conjecture appears to be corroborated by the geographic distribution of the votes. Unita had an overwhelming victory in the capital area of Luanda, previously an MPLA stronghold. Unita also gained victories in the northern oil-rich exclave of Cabinda and the north-western province of Zaire.
Third, although the Angolan electoral commission does not release voting data by age, it appears that many new voters in this election would have been born after 2002. This new youth electorate has protested against the MPLA’s destructive rent-seeking for years, mostly in Luanda, and been heavily repressed. When João Lourenço came to power in 2017, he promised to strengthen civil liberties.
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