André Pratte: Trudeau’s departure could cause problems for the Liberals in Quebec via nationalpost
The latest numbers from the Abacus polling firm are disturbing for the Liberals. The Conservatives, who have been without a leader for months, lead the Grits by five points. Mr. Trudeau’s personal popularity is sagging; at 51 per cent negative impressions, the prime minister is in as bad a situation as during the SNC-Lavalin scandal two years ago. If such a situation persists, the pressure will be high on Mr. Trudeau to leave before he inflicts more damage to his party.
Although a few prestigious personalities are expected to try to replace the current leader, I see no one, presently, able to excite Quebec voters in the way that Justin Trudeau did in 2015. The popular Mélanie Joly and François-Philippe Champagne may very well run, but the party will likely not choose another Quebec, French-speaking leader at this time. This leaves, amongst the big names, Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney.
What happens if Liberal support falls in Quebec? There is a strong enough conservative current in the province for the Conservatives to win a majority of seats here, which would make forming a majority government much easier. However, that depends on who the Conservatives choose as their next leader.Article content
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