Analysis: What the Buttigieg withdrawal means for Super Tuesday — and the rest of the primary contest
in a primary contest is not a good indicator of eventual success. If the race was even before Buttigieg dropped out, it may now lean slightly toward Klobuchar, with voting beginning tomorrow.
Klobuchar’s path to the nomination isn’t any more robust than Buttigieg’s was on Sunday morning. She may be staying in simply because Minnesota votes Tuesday and she understands that the state offers her the best chance to win a chunk of delegates moving forward. Those delegates are potentially important at the party’s convention, if no one wins a majority of delegates before voting ends in June.
That’s the other way in which Biden benefits. The timing here is important: Sanders was poised last week toa big chunk of the delegates awarded on Super Tuesday. If Biden gets a bump and Buttigieg’s share of the vote is distributed mostly to other non-Sanders candidates, that chunk will diminish.
Buttigieg’s delegate haul is small in the context of the total which will be awarded. It’s unlikely that his 26 delegates would be enough to give Biden a convention win over Sanders. The benefit to Biden, Warren and Klobuchar comes largely not from dropping out with delegates in hand but dropping out early enough that they are likely to pick up more delegates themselves than they otherwise would have.
Then there’s Bloomberg. But this is an article about the effects of Buttigieg’s withdrawal, not the ways in which the Democratic primary remains messy and unusual.
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