ANALYSIS | Ukraine war: What China gains from acting as peacemaker
China-EU relations are, of course, part of a bigger picture of relations between China and the west. Yet even here, there are some signs of a possible opening. US treasury secretary Jane Yellenthat “negotiating the contours of engagement between great powers is difficult” but also noted that Beijing and Washington “can find a way forward if China is also willing to play its part”.
The Xi-Zelenskiy phone call fits into a careful and fragile choreography of moves that might gradually see a more effective management of the war in Ukraine that would, initially, prevent further escalation and eventually pave the way towards a settlement. While it would not resolve all of the contentious issues in China-west relations, it would remove one particularly problematic issue from the list of immediate concerns.
President Xi is now appointing a special envoy to Ukraine as part of moves from China to push forward peace talks. Reuters/AlamyRussia as leverage in its great power competition with the west, and Xi is unlikely to abandon his partnership with Putin. But China also needs a Russia that is more controllable, and this means China needs an end to the war in Ukraine, which still has the potential to escalate further.
Bringing about a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine may take some time and require more than just Beijing’s mediation. But even an end to the fighting in Ukraine in the form of a stable ceasefire could benefit China. Such an intermediate outcome would make it more likely, for example, that the, which allows Ukraine to export its grain, would be extended again, easing the global food crisis.
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