Analysis: The Democrats haven’t turned the midterms around yet
.) You can see them all on the graph below, with the gain — or usually loss — of seats for the sitting president’s party shown from right to left and the generic ballot margin for his party from top to bottom. The dotted diagonal line is a rough trend for the available data. The horizontal blue line shows where the value for 2022 is.
, the intersection of the trend and 2022 lines lands somewhere in the “Democrats lose more than 60 seats” range. Gallup’s data on satisfaction with how things are going in the United States offers a more compact trend from bottom left to upper right. Here, we have a different problem: Americans are more dissatisfied than in any previous recorded midterm. The next least-happy voters had ever been was in 2010 — the most recent mega-blowout against the Democratic Party.
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