There appear to be high levels of cynicism and anger going into these elections. This anger looks to be directed primarily at the ANC, but also at other big parties, possibly opening a series of what could be called constituency gaps for smaller parties...
There is no shortage of smaller parties to exploit these gaps. Some of these parties have been in Parliament and in councils around the country for many years; they have name recognition, established processes and constituencies, and experience of retail politics. And yet despite this, and the gaps that have been created, there is little evidence at this stage that they will be able to make use of the opportunity.
For at least two of these parties, the root of their problem lies in the fact that there is an ethnic dimension to their support. Its founder, Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibi recently died. And there are few signs at this stage that it will be able to survive, or grow, without her. It may be that the UDM is now facing the consequences of these actions, and for refusing to act against Bobani.The party was formed in 2005 by residents of the town of Matatiele, who were unhappy at how the provincial border between the Eastern Cape and KZN was demarcated around their town. They wanted to be moved back to KZN… or, rather, for the provincial boundaries to be moved around them.
This may well now have an impact on the AIC. It is possible that voters will believe that despite giving it significant power, this has been wasted. They have nothing to show for it.The situation for the ACDP may be slightly different.