Luis Arraez is just the second batter in 15 years to be hitting better than .400 after 62 games, and just the third this century to be hitting at least .400 this deep into a season.
, a mathematical method to update beliefs based on new evidence using prior and current performance data) equates to a .351 batting average. Based on that figure, and forecasting he has about 340 at-bats remaining this season, we can estimate the probability of him hitting .400 or better this season at about 0.46 percent.Why such low odds for an elite hitter? As good as Arraez is, he has some flaws at the plate — and in some ways he’s been fortunate this season, despite those issues.
Arraez’s extremely low strikeout rate is helpful to his quest. Batting average is simply hits divided by at-bats, but we can also calculate a player’s batting average by multiplyingto get a sense of how a player’s strikeout rate and batting average on balls in play influence his performance. At the most obvious level, player with a zero strikeout rate would need to get a hit 40 percent of the time he puts a ball in play to be a .400 hitter.
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