Analysts are starting to agree on what it will take for airlines to recover in the coming months and years, while warning that airlines as big as American could go bankrupt
if visits from China fell substantially.
"It certainly feels like we're at the bottom," American Airlines CEO Doug Parker said during a television interview on April 15. "Our revenues are down 90% on a year-over-year basis. And they've been that way now for a few weeks.
But Parker acknowledged that even if a recovery begins in the coming months, it will take a while before the industry returns to 2019 levels of revenue and demand. "Unfortunately, return to work might not mean immediate return to the air," she added. "It is highly likely that any recovery won't start until the fourth quarter at the earliest, and then continue slowly through 2021 and into 2022."
"We believe business travel is likely to return ahead of leisure travel," she added, "but given the amount of teleconferencing, the use of Zoom, Skype, WebEx, GoToMeeting and other ways people are staying in touch and conducting meetings, this suggests that while business travel will return, it also will return at a slower pace than prior recoveries."
The downsizing would see airlines cut costs wherever possible, but the two major savings areas will be labor and aircraft.
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