China has the edge in its relationship with Russia, but this does not necessarily translate into an ability to end the war in Ukraine, experts tell CNA.
There have been surprises too. For instance, despite its perceived closeness with Russia and China, Cambodia’s national position evolved from refusing to take sides, to Prime Minister Hun Sen taking a phone call with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,Russian narratives about the war, and their amplification by China, also seem to have had some traction in Southeast Asia, said Assoc Prof Chong.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shaking hands with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Phnom Penh, Aug 5, 2022. These narratives about the war point to how Russia’s invasion has been of some use for China’s strategic aims in the Indo-Pacific, by casting NATO and the United States as irresponsible, destabilising actors that provoked and prolonged the conflict in Ukraine, said experts.
But political scientists also questioned how much the situation in Ukraine has actually distracted from China’s moves in the Indo-Pacific. Instead, fearful that Russia has created a precedent for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all increasing defence spending and military cooperation with the United States and each other, he said.ADVANTAGE CHINA
“The balance in the relationship is now heavily on China’s side, and it becomes more acute every week that the war continues,” he said. The war has also led to rising prices on strategic items such as energy, agriculture and mining products in China, causing inflationary pressure, said Dr Xu Le, lecturer in strategy and policy at the NUS Business School.
“China certainly has deep and long-term structural influence over the fate of the Russian economy, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into the ability to affect shorter-term choices the Kremlin makes about its strategic policy in Europe.” Ultimately, the experts agreed that it comes down to whether the Russian president will be willing to listen to and accept any proposal made.
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