African countries are less likely to follow East Asia's development model of expanding manufacturing to pull people out of poverty, according to a study that shows a declining share of factory jobs for most countries by mid-century.
released on Monday by the Center for Global Development shows there will be fewer factory workers in 2050 globally than there are now, and that even in poor countries with abundant cheap labor, manufacturing job growth will stagnate.
The study's authors say that China will continue to dominate global manufacturing, moving into higher-value segments. Instead, CGD senior fellows Charles Kenny and Ranil Dissanayake say that many countries will move straight from agriculture to services, where jobs will expand rapidly, especially because of new technologies -- even in countries such as Bangladesh and Ethiopia.
The study projects global growth through the year 2050 and models changes in the economies of 59 countries accounting for about three quarters of the world’s GDP and population.
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