A rapid collapse of state institutions may await Somalia when the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, or ATMIS, ends at the end of 2024, unless the United Nations' weapons embargo on the country is lifted, security experts warn.
Somali authorities and African Union officials said this week that ATMIS will draw down 2,000 soldiers by June 30 of this year to pave the way for the complete withdrawal of the African Union Mission in Somalia that started in 2007 with the African Union Mission to Somalia, or AMISOM, and it was replaced by ATMIS, which became operational on April 1, 2022.
Last week, the Somali government said it is ready to take over security responsibilities from ATMIS, as 2,000 troops will withdraw from the country in line with U.N. Security Council resolutions 2628 and 2670. "The Somali Army has been emboldened by anti-al-Shabab clan militias backing, as well as foreign military support. And now, it is clear that ATMIS withdrawal will encourage al-Shabab to remobilize and launch more brazen attacks on the Somali government," Col. Abdullahi Ali Maow, a former Somali intelligence official, told VOA.
Omar Abdi Jimale is a Mogadishu-based political science lecturer and commentator on Somalia's security and politics. He says with genuine international support for Somalia, the country's National Army can shoulder the burden and responsibility of security. Colonel Abdullahi Ali Ma'ow says African Union troops in Somalia have been filling in as a de facto army in Somalia, and their withdrawal could compromise Somalia's security gains."AU troops have been providing protection for Somalia's leaders and its economic sources, like ports and airports, until the Somali National Army is strong enough to counter the jihadi group on its own.
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