Analysis - In its quest to expand beyond North East Nigeria, JAS-ISWAP clashes aren't in the global terror group's interests.
In its quest to expand beyond North East Nigeria, JAS-ISWAP clashes aren't in the global terror group's interests.
JAS' gains are linked to a crucial alliance with an influential former ISWAP commander, Mikhail Usman, AKA Kaila. Kaila, from the Buduma ethnic group, defected to JAS in early 2023 with some commanders and fighters. Among their grievances was the perceived marginalisation of the Buduma from ISWAP leadership positions.
JAS retaliated five days later, wounding al-Barnawi in the ensuing battle. Around 25 November 2021, JAS attacked another ISWAP location at Shuwaram, killing about 180 fighters - ISWAP's biggest casualty. While Islamic State hasn't stopped ISWAP's preparations, it has asked for a pause in attacks while it tries to persuade Kaila to return to ISWAP. But Kaila will be reluctant to return, given his role in spearheading the JAS attacks and the fact that his fighters took many of ISWAP's weapons when they defected. Insiders told the ISS that Kaila reiterated this fear over the phone to Abu Rumaisa, al-Barnawi's brother and ISWAP media head, a few weeks ago.
Islamic State may also not want to risk reputational damage to its major affiliate in West Africa. Especially since Islamic State's other franchise in the region - Islamic State Sahel Province - is being overshadowed by the al-Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusratul Islam Wal Muslimin .in a struggle for supremacy against JNIM. This rivalry affects ISGS operations, with JNIM emerging as its primary security threat.
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