SMU grad and North Dakota State University professor describes her research into just how devastating the 1980s “death penalty” was to SMU. The school’s...
The synthetic control model calculated that SMU’s winning percentage fell well below expectations for the next several decades. The synthetic SMU had a consistent winning record from 1989 to 2019, with an average of 8 wins a season. Compared to actual SMU, which had a very volatile winning percentage, but a consistently losing record.
In the real world, only by the end of the 2019-20 season was SMU starting to recover in terms of athletic performance relative to what we would have expected had the death penalty never happened.Athletic revenue and expenditures fell drastically after the punishment, by about $15 million per season, and have never recovered. Because of the death penalty, the athletic program is significantly smaller than it otherwise would have been.
The consequences of the death penalty were not confined to just SMU. I found evidence that the other members of the Southwest Conference were negatively impacted as well. It is almost certainly the case that the death penalty contributed to the breakup of the venerable Southwest Conference, followed by conference realignments that continue to this day. Overall, my findings suggest that the death penalty had a wide and long-lasting impact on SMU, and perhaps also had a much longer and more widespread effect elsewhere than the NCAA ever anticipated. This could explain why it has never been used again.
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