Abacus Data Provincial Poll: Alberta Politics: UCP takes the lead as many Reluctant UCPers come home
David Coletto
. The NDP is well ahead in Edmonton while the UCP is well ahead outside of the province’s two largest cities. In Calgary, the NDP has a marginal two-point lead over the UCP. It remains deadlocked in Calgary. The NDP leads among those with a university degree while the UCP is well ahead among those with other educational attainment levels.. Today 1 in 3 think the province is headed in the right direction but up 7 points since December..
The survey data clearly points to the impact that issue framing and salience will have on voting behaviour. If the next election is fundamentally about economic management, taxes, or standing up to Ottawa – the UCP is in a stronger position to capitalize on those issues. If, however, healthcare is the dominant issue – the NDP is much better positioned to win. This might explain why Danielle Smith chose not to pick a fight with Justin Trudeau while in Ottawa this week for the healthcare talks.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
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