Gary Shilling: The recessionary indicators are numerous
I first suggested the U.S. economy was headed toward a recession more than a year ago, and now others are forecasting the same. I give a business downturn starting this year a two-thirds probability.
There is, of course, a small chance of a soft landing such as in the mid-1990s. At that time, the Fed ended its interest-rate hiking cycle and cut the federal funds rate with no ensuing recession. By my count, the other 12 times the central bank restricted credit in the post-Second World War era, a recession resulted.
“Recession” conjures up spectres of 2007-2009, the most severe business downturn since the 1930s in which the S&P 500 Index plunged 57 per cent from its peak to its trough. The Fed raised its target rate from 1 per cent in June 2004 to 5.25 per cent in June 2006, but the main event was the financial crisis spawned by the collapse in the vastly-inflated subprime mortgage market.
The 1973-1975 recession, the second deepest since the 1930s, resulted from the collapse in the early 1970s inflation hedge buying of excess inventories. That deflated the S&P 500 by 48.2 per cent. The federal funds rate hike from 9 per cent in February 1974 to 13 per cent in July of that year was a minor contributor.
South Africa Latest News, South Africa Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Flyers winger Jakub Voracek's two-game suspension upheld after appeal - Sportsnet.caNHL commissioner Gary Bettman has upheld the two-game suspension handed to Philadelphia Flyers forward Jakub Voracek.
Read more »
Flyers' Jakub Voracek appealing two-game suspension - Sportsnet.caPhiladelphia Flyers forward Jakub Voracek is appealing his two-game suspension for interference. Commissioner Gary Bettman will hear the appeal.
Read more »
Bettman upholds Voracek's suspension - TSN.caNHL commissioner Gary Bettman upheld Philadelphia Flyers forward Jakub Voracek's two-game suspension on Wednesday. Voracek appealed the suspension on Monday, the same day he served the first game of the ban as the Flyers defeated the Ottawa Senators.
Read more »
Bettman to hear Voracek's appeal today - TSN.caNHL commissioner Gary Bettman will hear Philadelphia Flyers forward Jakub Voracek's appeal on his two-game suspension Tuesday, according to multiple reports. Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer adds that Flyers general manager Chuck Fletcher is expected to accompany Voracek to the hearing, along with an NHLPA representative.
Read more »
A's ready to go amid hoopla around Ichiro, Mariners - TSN.caAmid all the hoopla surrounding Suzuki Ichiro's return to Japan with the Seattle Mariners, it's been easy to overlook something else: the Oakland Athletics are here, too.
Read more »
Colby Cosh: Two cheers, well, maybe one, for fraud-riddled U.S. higher edThe thing to be said for America is that at least there are real tests for parents to arrange to have their kids evade
Read more »
Colby Cosh: Maybe it’s all the grumbling about daylight saving that kills usLet’s face it. None of us is so careful about our sleep habits or health that we should be worrying about the spring-forward doing us in
Read more »
David Rosenberg: Don’t let ‘blockbuster’ job numbers fool you, Canada is one rung away from recessionOnly after a fiscal stimulus boost from Ottawa can we expect the Canadian dollar to reverse course any time soon
Read more »
Junos 2019: The American-born Barr Brothers keep on rockin’ in the Canadian worldRhode Island-born folk rockers have gained a new appreciation for true north music, and culture in general, since moving to Quebec
Read more »