Not that Iowa is a stepping stone to the Republican nomination.
The Iowa poll is not just another poll, mind you. Conducted by J. Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom, the poll is considered the state’s gold standard. Selzer is renowned for her assessments of Iowa’s electorate. So when her poll has Trump leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the nomination by a more than 2-to-1 margin, that’s significant.
The idea that Trump supporters might transfer their support to other candidates also depends on the idea that support for Trump isn’t fixed. Overall, about 4 in 10 likely caucusgoers told Selzer that their minds were made up about their preferred candidates. Among those who selected Trump as their first choice, though, two-thirds said their minds were made up.
Probably not. Two-thirds of likely caucusgoers say that they don’t think Trump committed serious crimes. In fact, Selzer found that the margin of support between Trump and DeSantis grew after the announcement of new charges in Georgia, though there’s a healthy margin of error on this.
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