Philippe J. Fournier: A new 338Canada analysis shows the ‘Green Democrats’ would hold the balance of power in a minority government after the next election
In the 2011 federal general election, the Jack Layton led New Democratic Party won a record 103 seats , winning 59 seats in Quebec and 22 more in Ontario, both record highs for the left leaning party.
Since Jagmeet Singh won the NDP leadership in 2017, the NDP has remained a distant third, polling nowhere near the numbers of either Jack Layton in 2011 or Tom Mulcair in all his reign as Leader of the Opposition. Before Singh’s Burnaby-South by-election victory in February, the NDP had lost ground in 14 of 15 by-elections held during the current 42nd legislature.
The Green Democrats would still likely fall in third place behind the Conservatives and Liberals, but the race at the top would become far more competitive.With this level of support, how would this theoretical new party fare in the seat projection? This is where it gets interesting. Here are the numbers.
The Green Democrats would be competitive in Fredericton, Acadie-Bathurst, St. John’s East, Halifax and Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook. Additionally, with the recent provincial election in P.E.I. that saw the Green Party become the official opposition, it wouldn’t be a stretch to suggest the Green Democrats could also be competitive in Charlottetown.
On the Island of Montreal, the Green Democrats could hold on to RLPP, Laurier-Sainte-Marie and Hochelaga. They could also take back Outremont from the Liberals. As it currently stands, the NDP and Greens are respectively in third and fourth place in B.C., both in the polls and the seat projection. However, in this theoretical scenario, the Green Democrats could potentially take first place.
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