'A cool $40 billion' revenue boost: What economists are saying about the fiscal update

'A cool $40 billion' revenue boost: What economists are saying about the fiscal update cdnecon inflation recession GDP

However, economists think a 0.7 per cent growth forecast is a bit optimistic, and several expect GDP to come in at 0.2 per cent next year.

Major financial institutions also highlighted the projected decline in Ottawa’s so-called “fiscal anchor” — the debt-to-GDP ratio. For this fiscal year, debt to GDP is expected to pull back to “42.3 per cent from 45.5 per cent last year and the pandemic peak of 47.5 per cent,” BMO Capital Markets said in a note. However, the measure is well off the pre-pandemic level of 31 per cent, BMO added.

Excluding an $8.5-billion provision for ‘anticipated near-term pressures’ net new spending over the forecast horizon is nearly equal parts growth- and affordability-oriented, and the latter is fairly well-targeted toward lower-income households. But these measures add to an already-elevated spending track — at 15.7 per cent of GDP, program spending in the current fiscal year is the highest in nearly three decades outside of the pandemic.

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