5 reasons pundits will overestimate Trump’s odds of winning in November, including pure overcompensation for 2016
The election night shock that may never completely wear off. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Now that we know who will be the Democratic challenger to Donald Trump in November, and are beginning to see the kind of regular horse-race polling of the presidential contest that may shape media and public perceptions down the stretch, it’s time to articulate a theory I’ve had all year long for how the punditocracy will treat the race, assuming that it will be reasonably close.
3. Trump’s Electoral College Advantage One non-superstitious reason for adding a few mental points to Trump’s polling numbers is simply that he has — thanks to a more efficient distribution of Republican votes — an electoral college advantage that isn’t reflected in national popular vote polling. Yes, Trump threaded the needle in 2016 with upset wins in three Rust Belt states by a total of 77,000 votes.
4. Democrats Fret, Republicans Spin The sheer weight of opinion about the election outcome can affect perceptions, as they likely did in convincing just about everyone that Clinton was a lock in 2016. This time around, it’s hard to find a Republican who doesn’t think Trump’s cruising to reelection and it’s hard to find a Democrat with any degree of confidence in Biden’s prospects.
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