2019 Election Results: Tracking the Count – Updated By Peter Attard Montalto
As large metros start reporting the model is on the move, but only subtly. The numbers are shifting very slightly, but the narrative is not. We still see the ANC on around 57.1% nationally and 50.5% in Gauteng .
It looks likely, however, that the ANC will get an outright majority of seats if the underlying swing seen in seats highly correlated with Soweto and similar Gauteng areas comes through. It is still not possible to “call” Gauteng really — given the margin of error is still +/-1%. However in the morning, with more results, it should then be possible, barring any major slowdown in declaration speed.
For now the national results would seem to suggest that notional “mandate” levels for President Ramaphosa are not met .The model is still broadly stable around 57.5% nationally, now a tick higher in Gauteng but still holding in around 50.5%. The DA has dropped back both nationally and in Gauteng in our projection but actually, EFF has seen a split, strengthening marginally in Gauteng while dropping back nationally. As we commented on in the last update we don’t think this is a bad result at all for them and their outcome may well have been over-hyped beforehand by both the media and the party itself.
With the 20% mark of expected votes reached in Gauteng and nearly 30% overall here is another update of our model. In Gauteng the model is still stable, sitting just above 50% of the vote share but with such low returns still from key areas of the province, confidence bands are still wide. Even as the smaller parties vote shares get added, and ADCP may gain a seat , the ANC is sticking there with right on the number of 37 required for a majority. This clearly could be easily lost and so we still find Gauteng too close to call – albeit the current indication is that the ANC can just make it come.
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