While rooted in analysis and based, in part, on last year\u0027s performances, they\u0027re supposed to be more fun than serious.
Why it probably won’t: For a team with aspirations of making a major leap forward after a long and painful rebuild, the Orioles didn’t take any big swings in free agency. While the future is bright, a last-place finish in a formidable division wouldn’t be surprising if Henderson, Rodriguez and the other inexperienced players on the roster struggle. FanGraphs gives the Orioles a 9.1 percent chance to make the postseason.Why it could happen: In 153 games over the past two seasons, the No.
Why it probably won’t: McKenzie is prone to giving up the long ball, though 16 of the 25 home runs he allowed last season were solo shots. Hitters’ batting average on balls in play against McKenzie was .237, which was the third lowest in the majors among qualified starters, and his left-on-base percentage ranked eighth, so some regression could be in order.Why it could happen: After slumping to a career-worst .
Why it probably won’t: The defending World Series champion Houston Astros are still the Astros and are the favorites to win another division title. The Seattle Mariners, who ended what had been MLB’s longest playoff drought last season, look like postseason contenders again, and the Rangers should be more competitive after a busy offseason. The Angels’ young starting pitchers are promising but don’t have long track records of success.
Why it probably won’t: Most projection systems give Atlanta and New York a better than 90 percent chance to reach the postseason. Both teams are so loaded with talent, including young prospects poised to step in if needed, that an injury or two isn’t going to derail them.Why it could happen: The Cardinals outperformed expectations to win 93 games and the division title last year, and while they’ve got the lineup to do it again, the starting rotation is suspect.
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